Telework Solutions, Uzbekistan

Telework Solutions for Promotion of
EU Cooperation in business and research
with the Commonwealth of Independent States

TELESOL Uzbekistan

IT equipment and software market in Uzbekistan: short history and future

Introduction

The term telework covers a range of new ways of working, using telecommunications as a tool and, for example, outside a traditional office environ- ment. Telemedicine is the expertise through telecommunications networks from any distance and also its use wherever and whenever the patient is located. The benefits that can be achieved are numerous. The general level as well as accessibility of health care services improve significantly using telemedicine, and the equality between rural areas and urban centres increases. An immediate benefit is the decrease of patient transfers through an efficient use of modern telecommunications solutions. The role of basic health care becomes much more significant when specialized health care resources can be used optimally. Quicker diagnoses and health care enhancement bring savings to many parties and improve patient safety and care. Telemedicine also provides new and interesting business opportunities to the private sector without geographical limitations. The efficient use of medical data bases and information resources, e.g. through Internet is also one of the major aims of telemedicine. In Uzbekistan according ITU Telemedicine group Recommendations the firs pilot project are began. Particularly, in field of emergency and military medicine. As for telemedicine based mostly on Information Technologies and Internet, this paper presents original analysis of this area current status in Uzbekistan. The paper analyses the market of hardware, software, and telecommunications in the country. Depending on IT&T development it can be expected the scenario of telemedicine promotion in Uzbekistan.

IT equipment market in Uzbekistan: short history and future

Structure of computer market

Computer market in Uzbekistan consists of following sectors: specialized computers (servers, etc.), personal computers (PC), printers, scanners, digital copy machines, digital cameras, multimedia video projectors, digital Dictaphones, communication equipment (routers, cables, network adapters, radio Ethernet, etc), and also narrowly specialized equipment for banks, CAD-CAM systems.

In the market of PC dominates x86 IBM PCs. Alternative platforms (Apple, Sun Microsystems and other) are presented in a very small amount. More than 90% of PC are assembled on the base of intel-compatible processors. Computers are mostly operated under OS Windows. Previous installation of licensed soft on new PCs (besides brand PCs and notebooks) is not in practice at all.

As a rule, the complete sets for PC's are produced in Taiwan, China, for CDROM, - in Korea, China, Taiwan. The warranty for PC issues for one year. Computers come with monitors 15" (about 85%), 17"(about 14%), and very seldom with monitors 19" and above sizes. Last year sales of LCD monitors increase. Market of computer peripherals mostly consists of HP production (more than 90% of laser and Jet printers); 95% of them are designed for SOHO users.

Market of copy machines consist of productions of Canon, Xerox, Konica. Last years world producers of copy techniques canceled the analog technologies and begin to produce digital multifunctional devices; nevertheless in Uzbekistan cheapest analog copying machines are in popular demand.

On the market of communication equipment LAN with 10 MB are prevailed. In 2002-2003 year it is expected the large scale implementation of the networks with 100 mb/s; there are not networks with gb/s speed.

On the Market of modems prevails analogues modems for dial-up connection with costs up to 50$. The orders the equipment for ISDN and xDSL network are very seldom. Only some companies are providers of equipment for videoconferences, presentations, (LCD projectors, overhead projectors, etc).

Satellite communications in Uzbekistan

Satellite complex of international telephone network has been operated in Uzbekistan. It consists of three surface stations of satellite communication, which are working with three satellites.

Joint venture Uzsvyaz's sputnik has been delivered mobile satellite communication service INMARSAT, and satellite communication service based on VSAT, which is using for corporate networks creation mostly.

From 1997 year Uzbekistan is member of International organization INTELSAT. According to Resolution of World Conference of radio communication for Uzbekistan were detailed the resources of geostationary orbit (position coordinates, number of channels for operating of radio broadcasting satellite service).

The development of satellite communication in Uzbekistan will be realize in following main directions:

Creation of satellite broadcasting network;
Further development of international satellite telephone service
Development of mobile communications service.

It is planned to use in the country the global mobile personal satellite communications beginning from 2002.

The main goal until end of 2005 year is to creation the surface framework, consisting of small surface stations placed in, remote and almost inaccessible regions. Surface framework should be developed using leased channels of existing satellite communications; in future, perhaps, would be used the channels of own uzbek satellite.

Structure of market and development of computer firms

There are 200-250 specialized computer firms and private businessmen on uzbek computer market. Only 30% of them has been worked more or less effectively, i.e. demonstrates sustainable development during some years.

The rest firms as a rule are closing after one year after establishment. The staff of computer firm (in 90% cases) is not more than 10 people. In large import companies personnel numbers nearly 100 people, but half of them are busy with such issues as converting of local currency, registration of export-import contracts, custom procedures and registration of exchange contracts.

Unfortunately, today a success of large computer company depends not on it's service quality, but on solutions of converting and custom procedures problems.

Through imperfection of legislation a small computer firms could not supply new or seldom type of equipment; they are forced apply to large importers that leads to rising in prices . In import structure prevails "container" slow delivery of goods. Delivery term from date of contract designation until custom procedures takes 1.5 -2 months in average. The number of large import companies are no more than 5% of total computer firms, the rest are re-sale firms. There is not practice of sales through Internet. Even world well known companies such as Sony, Panasonic or Phillips has been supplied uzbek computer market by old peripherals.

Staff of computer firms

Large uzbek computer companies have possibilities for training their personnel on producer's enterprises. Practically all large scale firms dispose of certificate specialists and product-managers, whose training is very expensive. As far as salary for such specialist in Uzbekistan is not exceed 50$ per month, as usual they are seeking the job in Moscow, where they can get more than 500$.

Through local legislation and bank's control the computer firms can not increase the salary, even they have necessary money for this. So annually about 20% of high level IT specialists have been left from Uzbekistan, and computer providers enforced to train new specialists once again. In some companies personnel rotation are 30-50% per year, and this factor is not promoted to their development.

Does Uzbekistan need in its own production of PC's?

The production of PC in Uzbekistan. What does it mean? The production process conditionally can be divided on some stages.

Development of own solutions. The design of processors, chipsets, multilayered plates, technologies for production of all components (HDD, CDROM, FDD, video card, etc). But there is not producer in the world who would produced all the components, because to day the new processor and CPU design costs some billion dollars. Only large corporation can produce some set of components for PC, but not a whole PC. There is specialization and separation of enterprises. For example, the design of new processors realized in the USA and Canada, assemblage organizes more effectively in Taiwan and China.
Therefore, the creation of uzbek enterprises for PC production is impossible to day through large amount of necessary financial investments and absence of great demands on computer market in country.
The creation of assembling enterprises, where only system plate or some other components are produced; technological design produces and orders through OEM to other producers. In this case a great amount of investment is requested also, but there is a risk on initial stage to produce incomparable or obsolete PC's for market.
It is necessary to organize manufacture in collaboration with well known and experienced foreign partner.
Organization of screwdriver assembling industry of PC in Uzbekistan. In this case it is necessary to establish stable economical links with suppliers, to test and select most appropriate components for concrete types of PC. A local producer also pushes his wares and develops set of service.

The organization of such type industry doesn't demand a lot of money, a high level skills of workers. There are advantages in suppliers selection which lead to big variety of production. The time for this industry development is equal to time of PC components supplying. She enterprises can be easily created in regions of Uzbekistan, considering local demands of potential users.

Taking into attention above mentioned ways of PC manufacturing, one can asks is it necessary to create local producers PC in Uzbekistan? Have Uzbekistan possibilities to invest a lot of money for ICT equipment development? How much the Uzbekistan needs in computer's manufacturing, if basic "specialization" of country is agriculture and processing industry? Probably, it will be logical to produce the ICT equipment as a tool for acceleration of economical activities inside the country minimizing the charges for sale purchases abroad. Then the question is to create assembling or screwdriver manufactures of PC and peripherals in a short-term. The next stage can be the program of manufacture development with deep technological basis. In this case the state should provided necessary economic condition in order to attract well known PC producers for creating their own enterprises here; it may be producing of modems, CD-ROM, printers etc. From that source can be provided some components for PC completing, and at the same time these enterprises can give money for additional purchases of other components for PC producing.

What does sale in computer market? And how?

In Uzbekistan are selling about 30.000 PC and 1000 notebooks every year; 65% of them imported by legal ways. Every twentieth PC belongs to known brand manufacturer. The others with the rare exception, have been produced in Uzbekistan by principle of screwdriver. Most popular models of PC in Uzbekistan are models of Low End class. High performance PC makes up to 10% of PC's market; they use as 3D-playing stations by rich citizens of country. Large research and academic centers, as a rule, could not re-new their computers and works on obsolete PC's. Unbiased evaluation of PC's effectiveness showed that most part of current users prefer to apply a set of simple PC than one high performance computer. Who are purchasers of computers and peripherals?

In most cases computer equipment has been purchased by enterprises and organizations for special problems solving. Scientific institutes need in CAD/CAM systems, banks need in DB management systems, educational organizations request equipment for distance learning, libraries use PC tools for electronic libraries creation, academic institutes implement PC for automation of research studies, state organizations strongly need in replacing the paper-based data processing by electronic technologies. In the different offices computer tools are used for documents turnover or in account departments for correct and operative tax calculation. Every of above mentioned directions of PC using has been funded from state budget or covers by special state program. Only 5% of PC are used for home leisure and internet-cafes.

Unfortunately it is not understandable why state in one side encourages and funds ICT and Internet from his own budget, and at the same time fixes high import duties and import Added Value Tax (AVT).

Problems to be solved for an acceleration of hardware supplying in Uzbekistan:

To establish the money converting on account current;
To cancel the import customs and import added tax value;
To cancel the limitations of salary for staff of computer firms and companies;
To simply the procedure of foreign trade contracts and export-import mechanisms as whole;
To introduce in customs standard the category of multifunctional devices, such as PDA, for example;
To minimize the disparity in taxes between private and juridical persons.

Prognosis of ICT development in Uzbekistan

The are three possible scenarios for development of hardware supplying in country.

All things are remaining the same, if legislation basis is not changed, current problems are not solved. In this case ICT market in Uzbekistan lags behind developed countries and cannot satisfy internal demands of country in hardware.
The step-by-step reforming of rules and legislation in area of ICT. Gradual reducing of taxes and customs, introduction of money converting and limitations cancel. In this case ICT development will depend on condition improving and limitations cancel.
This scenario more preferable, but it couldn't realize all the possibilities and then couldn't give expected effectiveness of reforms in ICT area. Foreign investors will wait the reforms finishing, as well as they want have the clear and stable conditions for business.
The auspicious conditions are created for ICT development. This scenario is ideal for ICT development, and it can be suppose, that IC market will be growth rapidly, by participation of foreign investors, consolidation of local companies, producing computers and peripherals.

Market development will be in full accordance to local demands in area of information technologies. Therefore will create the basis for catch up with the barriers of field of ICT from developed countries.

The software market in Uzbekistan: short history and future

Post-soviet and PC stages of development

On first stage of post-soviet period of software development the following consequences of decentralization took place:

Sharpies in productivity of soft producing
Enlist a lot of programmers with low level skills
Loss of experience by project managers, system analysts, because they combined both these functions
Oversimplification of computers using for account problem decision
Implementation of PC to small venture organizations

This period of history characterized by the first wave of programmers emigration from Uzbekistan to Russia and West, which was generated by "iron curtain" destroying and west life style attracting. There are many small companies arise. Many leading programmers with rich experience begin to work on hardware market, because basic capital investments are aimed at hardware purchasing.

Approximately in the middle of nineties in Uzbekistan new period of computerization development and software designing begins. A lot of working PC, new needs of state and private organizations generate the creation of centralized data bases and data processing services. The local networks have been creating at first step, and later, in 1998 the projects on corporate national networks are arising. Between successful projects of this period might be marked:

The system of electronically payments around the country; it was designed effective system with high speed bank transactions, which is exceed the analogous in other countries, e.g. in Russia.
Electronically visa support system of Uzbekistan.

In Uzbekistan is arising the great interest to West technologies in field of distributed information networks. The leader in this area is Oracle. The emerging groups of programmers began to design the special applications for large information networks. Unfortunately, knowledge and skills in these technologies being prestige in western market of information technologies, became the source for emigration of programmers who took a very expensive training. At the same time the technologies for large information networks designing enhance the prestige of rich experienced programmers.

In 2000-2002 years Internet was broadly developed. In according with Government Resolutions (1999 year, 2002 year) the data national network is created ("UZPAK").

Today there are 83 Internet providers, and about two hundred different uzbek web-sites; price lists of Internet providers are distinguish, but we present the price list of UZPAK, which is really more powerful provider here(see Appendix 1). These days, as says general director of UZPAK, Mr. Sanginov, started to realize the largest project on re-organization Internet network in Uzbekistan. The supplier winning tender of equipment delivery is "BELAM .INC", which is a distributor of "NORTEL NETWORKS" company from the U.S. This company will provide the equipment for a total sum of 800 mln dollars. If today in country are 18 Internet nodes this number increase up to 235, in future. It means even a small cities will be covered by internet. Today the capacity of international access is 3.5 Mb/Sec but after reconstruction increases in 12 times.

Although UZPAK has been given access at a discount of 50% in regions, it is expected the internet service will be more cheaper. In Fall,2002 customs on all computer equipment was cancelled , and sales on computer market has increased by a 12%. By Government initiative the Internet-festivals has been organized in Tashkent on regular base; GTZ (Germany) sponsored the design of very interesting web-site "Made in Uzbekistan".

Between Web technologies have been used in country one can find all the basic technologies for soft assigning: Perl, PHP, ASP, MySQL, Oracle. In a complex Web solutions emphasizes the free of charge solutions.

There is only one example of Lotus Notes using, when "British-America-Tobacco" company has designed his corporate network.

Software designing in Uzbekistan: current status and problems of development

The trend of software development determines by existing demands from large state organizations or private companies.
Basic projects in this field concentrates on automation system for large state, private organizations. Owing to this a necessary vertical framework is existed. Within it analysts, project managers, ordinary programmers have been worked and have the perspective for career. This niche is an great importance, as well as save a special culture of good tools designing and interrelations between clients and contractors. Some companies might be underlined in this niche: NCI, Fudo Business, OLSOFT, ASBT.
To-day only programmers from OLSOFT produce a original software for sale on western markets using Internet. There are programs on following directions:
1. Financial analysis of securities market.
2. On-line designer of protection strategies for securities market.
3. Generalizing and forecasting of cost data based on neural networks algorithms.
4. Data cluster and factor analysis, based on neural networks; knowledge mining tools.
5. Phase studies of raw materials world markets.
Main obstacles faced to original soft designers on free market sales determines by that existing financial laws are served only of cotton and natural resources export.
Demands for rapid and frequent payments for them may be realized only through Internet-banking in off-shore or western economical zones.
There are the groups of programmers have been worked in outsourcing conditions. But main barrier they run into their activities is a pressure of programmers from countries with cheapest manpower: India, Moldavia, Pakistan.
For programmers working in outsourcing framework the access to clients are not easy.
Nevertheless, there are western companies, who have been ordered last decade the soft between small private working groups of programmers who can produced high level software.
It can be mentioned about two models of software producing: Indian and Israel models. The Indian model characterizes by presence of a lot of low-cost programmers with low and middle professional skills. On the contrary , Israel model of soft producing based on high educated small groups of programmers. It is known, that Israel model gives a personal profit (in hard currency), which is ten times the Indian programmer's profit.
It is no doubt, that Indian model can not be a basis for soft producing development in Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan distinguishes from India by presence of a lot of programmers with university degree, as well in Israel. Meanwhile, Indian model bases on programmers, graduated from colleges.
It should be outlined, that in Uzbekistan, as well as in Russia, dominates type of thinking which is based on prevalent time conceptions, but not on temporary. So mentalities in Uzbekistan characterizes by thinking within cause, and effect paradigm; they distinguishes by analytical thinking and logic dominant. As a consequence for people with these ways of thinking more preferable is activities in field of programming, but not in fields of mechanics, architecture, etc.
In Uzbekistan, in spite of large emigration of specialists, has been saved the culture of large scale projects realizing in software producing. Due to small number of programmers with rich experience has been raised a new generation of system analysts and project managers.
From all above described situation one can conclude that it is possible to produce software in Uzbekistan. It may be relatively complex, intellectual tools which is more cheaper than made in Israel or in West. At the same time it might be combined of Indian and Israel models of soft producing in Uzbekistan in dependence of professional skill labor market status in Uzbekistan.
In general, the situation with soft producing can be described as indifference from state authorities. No one positive step in this direction is not doing. Some activities has been hold, but in order to register factual changes, which are took place spontaneously.
An expensive costs of access to Internet which are some times the Russian or western costs. Considering the poverty of population, one can understand that there is great economical obstacle for Uzbekistan participation in global network.

Possible ways of solution

Accentuate the producing of high quality national software, using optimal selection 0f inexpensive DB and tools for designing. This action gives possibility to increase a salary for programmers did not leave from country yet and to open new working places.
Create free economical zones (territorial or virtual) where will be established the conditions for rapid currency transactions with small sums.
For the specialists in field of programming who got prestige certificates abroad to clear by working their contract with local computer firms during some years. It is norm for western mechanism of training.
To announce the Calls within program of commercial software producing; it will be encourage revealing new problems of different areas of science and technology.
To create private venture foundations aimed to invest in intellectual soft producing.
Broad popularization of software achievements, and attraction the attention to system analysts, projects managers.
To reduce crucially internal competition between programmers, to direct them on competition in global economics.
To study the demands of world economics to software and publicity these documents for software designers.
In general, for existing problem solution, it should be design state program of software producing industry development in Uzbekistan. This Program should be designed by all interesting sides: private, state organizations, representatives of government.

Prognosis

The possible scenarios of software producing may be as following:

If the current status will not be changed
If the present situation does not change, then scenario may be pessimistic. It means that in Uzbekistan will work the programmers who produce tools for needs of large state and private corporation in standard systems of documents turnover and account. Nevertheless, the programmers with high professional skills will emigrate to countries with higher level of a living. Successful engineering of standard information systems has been saved an illusion that everything is all right in this area. This situation will continue until moment of final standardization of engineering in field of corroborative solutions; last leads to development of cheap and easy adjustable solutions and to disappearance in Uzbekistan the soft producing on regular base. This scenario can develop most probably in 5-10 years.
The producing of original program will be business of young lone persons, and only until time when they would oblivious by large foreign computer companies. But probably part of them can adapt to telework, carrying out the labor-consuming of more or less standard orders.
This situation from economical point of view is not profitable for Uzbekistan, because of:
- there is additional export profit from soft sales;
- there are additional currency charges for import hardware and software maintenance by foreign companies.
If the soft producing will one of the state strategically program
In this case it can be expect in some years the profit in range of from hundred millions to billion dollars annually. Some thousand people can provide the profit commensurable with the profit of some million people; this profit will be commensurable with the profit from export of cotton and other natural recourses.
This scenario leads in the first place to re-orientation of youth, and to considerable changing in society in sense of it's orientation on scientific, technological, secular mentalities in general.

Conclusion

Presented here probable ways of IT development in Uzbekistan in many respects predefined the telework solutions in health, e.g. telemedicine. Really, for developing countries is impossible to import all telemedicine equipment and according software. Even the communications hardware, software problems will be solved, the other problems are still remained, and one of then is a business aspect..

When organizations began installing early mainframe computers, there were strong business reason for the investment and promises of considerable business benefits. During those times, a healthy resistance since it demanded very different ways of operating the shifted critical responsibilities from humans and machines.

Once mainframe computers became reliable and were proven, an organization-wide confidence eventually set in, spurring widespread acceptance and commitment to its use. The organization became permanently "enculturated" with mainframe computer, eventually becoming a critical, permanent element of the organizational operating structure.

For most medical organizations in developed countries telemedicine has past the resistance stage and is being seriously explored as a viable workplace alternative.

Executives are heard saying: "Prove to me that it works. Prove to me that teleworking (teleconsultations, e.g.) is manageable, that I can actually measure results without losing control of employees and operations".

Before organization can accept telemedicine as a true technology-based business application, certain foundational elements must be in place on which the program is built. Because of its permanent and often dramatic effects fundamental organizational culture, telemedicine must be deliberately, methodically and carefully introduced into the medical organization to assure success. But these problems are out of this paper.

Appendix 1

Price Lists

Inter-network connections of data transfer providers to National data transfer network (UzPAK).

This service supposes to provide separate ports for access in Uz PAK network with speed limited by providers
Payment for facts exceeding of traffic amount is doing in framework of using service plan
All prices in the USD

Registration and inter-network connection with fixed up to 32 IP addresses, including design, installation and programming.

N

Type of connection (port)

Payment

Tashkent

Oblast centres (regions)

1

Asynchronous port

331

254

2

Synchronous port (up to 64 kbs)

360

270

3

Synchronous port 64 kbs

360

270

4

Synchronous port over 64 kbs

420

323

5

Ethernet port, including Radio Ethernet

360

270

Access to Internet through UzPAK (leased-line, constant IP-connections)

Plan

Indexes of tariffs

Speed of connection (KBs)

19.2
28.8 38.4
64

96

128

192

256

384
512 768 1024

Minimal

Subscriber payment (monthly)

150

225

400

570

720

960

1280

1920

Contract price

Reply-paid traffic, MB

600

1000

2000

3000

4000

6000

8000

12000

Contract price

Cost for every 1MB over reply-paid traffic

0.25

0.23

0.20

0.19

0.18

0.16

0.16

0.16

Contract price

Subscriber payment (monthly)

252

360

640

900

1120

1680

2423

3563

Contract price

Standard

Reply-paid traffic, MB

1200

2000

4000

6000

8000

12.000

17.000

25.000

Contract price

Cost for every 1MB over reply-paid traffic

0.21

0.18

0.16

0.15

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

Contract price

Subscriber payment (monthly)

324

495

840

1170

1560

2280

3000

4180

Contract price

Active

Reply-paid traffic, MB

1800

3000

6000

9000

12.000

19.000

25.000

38.000

Contract price

Cost for every 1MB over reply-paid traffic

0.18

0.17

0.14

0.13

0.13

0.12

0.12

0.11

Contract price

Maximal (without limits of traffic)

Subscriber payment (monthly)

550

800

1350

1980

2600

3800

4950

7300

Contract price

Internet Dial-Up On-Line service

Code of

Service

Kind of service, periodicity of payment

Price

Internet Dial-up on-line in Tashkent

IDT

24 Hour access

1

Registration fee, including payment for 4 E-mail boxes

Free of charge

2

Subscriber payment, including 6 hours in month and maintenance of 4 e-mail boxes (monthly)

14.01

3

For every additional hour of access (the facts)

1.71

4

Primary deposit

28.02

ODT

24 Hour access in account of advance paid time limit

1

Registration fee, including payment for 4 e-mail boxes

7.48

2

For every hour of access

1.76

IDTN

Night access to Internet (from 00 until 07 a.m.)

1

Registration fee, including payment for 4 e-mail boxes

Free of charge

2

Subscriber payment, including 6 hours in month and maintenance of 4 e-mail boxes (monthly)

5.35

3

For every additional hour of access (the facts)

0.60

4

Primary deposit

10.70

ODTN

Night access to Internet (from 00 until 07 a.m.) in account of advance paid time limit

1

Registration fee, including payment for 4 e-mail boxes

5.21

2

For every hour of access

0.62

IDO

24 Hour access to Internet

1

Registration fee, including payment for 4 e-mail boxes

Free of charge

2

Subscriber payment, including 6 hours in month and maintenance of 4 e-mail boxes (monthly)

7.64

3

For every additional hour of access (the facts)

0.90

4

Primary deposit

15.28

ODO

24 Hour access in account of advance paid time limit

1

Registration fee, including payment for 4 e-mail boxes

5.21

2

For every hour of access

1.24

IDON

Night access to Internet (from 00untie 07 a.m.)

1

Registration fee, including payment for 4 e-mail boxes

Free of charge

2

Subscriber payment, including 6 hours in month and maintenance of 4 e-mail boxes (monthly)

2.67

3

For every additional hour of access (the facts)

0.32

4

Primary deposit

5.35